* Miner's 2nd-quarter profit seen down 69 pct 
    * Improvement over 1st qtr seen due to copper recovery 
    * Market waiting on Asarco court resolution 
   
    By Mica Rosenberg 
    MEXICO CITY, July 16 (Reuters) - Mexico's biggest copper 
miner, Grupo Mexico, is expected to post a 69 percent decline 
in second-quarter profit, with metals prices down sharply from 
peaks seen during the same period last year. 
    But the price of copper has recovered since the beginning 
of 2009 and the company is expected to show better results 
compared with the first three months of this year. 
    Four analysts consulted by Reuters forecast, on average, 
that Grupo Mexico <GMEXICOB.MX> earned a net profit of $140.5 
million in the second quarter, a steep decline from $451.7 
million in the same period of 2008. 
    Revenue is expected to be $1.04 billion dollars, a 40 
percent drop from the year-ago quarter. 
    The company, which also controls railroads in Mexico, earns 
the bulk of its revenue from mining unit Southern Copper 
<PCU.N> and was hurt by a more than 40 percent drop in copper 
prices in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, 
Rodrigo Heredia of Ixe brokerage said in a report. 
    Other analysts put a positive spin on the upcoming results 
because of an expected quarter-on-quarter recovery. 
    Compared to the first quarter of 2009, the company's net 
profit is seen jumping 635 percent and revenue could rise 26 
percent. 
    Copper prices have improved from a crash at the end of last 
year on expectations that massive infrastructure projects in 
government stimulus plans will boost demand for the red metal. 
    Grupo Mexico's overall copper volumes have been hit by a 
strike at the massive Cananea mine that has dragged on for 
nearly two years. 
    
    ASARCO DECISION PENDING 
    The miner is battling in Texas courts to regain control of 
its bankrupt U.S. subsidiary Asarco, which is burdened by 
billions of dollars in environmental claims. 
    Grupo Mexico, which lost board control of the Arizona-based 
copper miner due to the bankruptcy, increased its offer to 
retake control of Asarco this month. 
    Grupo Mexico proposed $3.1 billion in cash and notes to 
counter a rival bid from Indian company Sterlite Industries 
<STRL.BO>, a subsidiary of London-listed mining conglomerate 
Vedanta Resources Plc <VED.L>. 
    One of Asarco's largest bondholders, investment fund 
Harbinger Capital Partners, unsatisfied with both offers, 
joined the battle last month with its own $500 million 
reorganization bid. 
    "In the next few weeks the judge will hand down his ruling 
on Asarco's restructuring (August 10), and given that Grupo 
Mexico's bid has the highest present value of the three that 
were offered, we think it has the best chance of once again 
consolidating the company," BBVA Bancomer analyst Pablo 
Peregrina said in a report. 
    In Texas court proceedings separate from the bankruptcy 
hearing, Asarco is suing its former parent for damages, 
alleging that it was stripped of its most valuable asset, 
Southern Copper. 
    Grupo Mexico is expected to report quarterly results 
between July 27 and July 30. 
    Following is a table with the average expected results for 
the copper miner (all figures in dollars). 
   
============================================================== 
                   2009 (POLL)        2008          PERCENTAGE 
                   APRIL-JUNE      APRIL-JUNE       CHANGE 
-------------------------------------------------------------- 
Revenue              $1.041 bln    $1.758 bln       -40.8 
EBITDA*              $  406 mln    $  960 bln       -57.7 
Net profit           $  141 mln    $  452 mln       -68.9 
============================================================== 
 
============================================================== 
                   2009 (POLL)       2009           PERCENTAGE 
                   APRIL-JUNE      JAN-MARCH        CHANGE 
-------------------------------------------------------------- 
Revenue              $1.041 bln    $  824 mln       +26.4 
EBITDA*              $  406 mln    $  277 mln       +46.8 
Net profit           $  141 mln    $   19 mln      +635.7 
============================================================== 
   
   * Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and 
amortization 
   
 (Reporting by Mica Rosenberg; editing by John Wallace) 
  
 
Keywords: GRUPOMEXICO/